31page

31 economic outlooK oF SouTH KoRea anD THe gLoBe In 2014 By Han Lee Vice President, shinhan fsb research institute global economy: slow but steady recovery expected to Continue Te world economy observed a steady up- ward trend in the frst half this year, driven by U.S. and eurozone. Te U.S. continued its recovery as consumption and investment sentiments improved with more job creation and nearing the end of the household de- leveraging cycle. Te eurozone, powered by Germany and France, returned to growth in the second quarter of this year. Te U.S. eco- nomic vitality was impaired by the Fed’s plans to reduce quantitative easing and battles over the Federal government’s budget and debt ceilings, but China’s growth helped the glob- al economy stay on track of recovery. Other emerging economies such as Brazil and In- dia, however, held back the world economy as they struggled with fuctuating exchange rates and prices due to foreign capital outfow. Current global economic trends are expect- ed to continue in 2014 and the U.S. is likely to take a leading role in the global recovery. De- spite the Fed’s plans to scale back quantitative easing, the U.S. is projected to enjoy steady growth with its loose money program, dimin- ishing fnancial uncertainty, housing market growth and increasing consumption levels. While recent political tension between Dem- ocrats and Republicans on budget and the debt ceiling led to economic turmoil, ending the disputes by late this year or early next year would greatly reduce concerns over fnancial risks. However, reducing quantitative easing is likely to constrain growth as it will raise the interest rate, which could result in rising mortgage interest rates and corporate debt burdens. International organizations such as the International Monetary Fund predict the growth rate for the U.S. will reach the mid-2 percent range next year, up from this year’s mid 1 percent range. Tis year, the eurozone managed to emerge from recession. With continued loose mon- etary policy and global recovery trend, the eurozone is projected to maintain its slow recovery momentum. Struggling euro mem- bers such as Spain and Italy could also turn their growth positive, as the re-elected Ger- man Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to ease austerity measures for the most troubled nations. However, banks that remain under- capitalized will constrain growth as they are unable to solicit or accept brokered deposits. Tough the euro area is predicted to move out of a long recession, the growth will be 2014년 중 국내 경제는 올해보다는 성장활력 이 다소 높아지나, 경기회복 속도는 매우 완만할 것으로 예상된다. 특히, 내년에는 미국의 출구전 략 논의 과정에서 국내외 금리가 급등하고 신흥국 에서의 대규모 자금이탈이 발생하는 등 글로벌 금 융시장 혼선이 초래될 가능성이 있다. 따라서 이러 한 금융시장의 이상 징후를 조기에 파악할 수 있도 록 주요국의 정책결정 과정에 대한 모니터링을 강 화하는 한편, 가계 및 기업, 정책당국은 금융시장 의 변동성 확대에 대비한 리스크 관리에 만전을 기 할 필요가 있다.